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Traders see just three Fed rate cuts in 2025, starting in June

Traders of futures that settle to the Fed policy rate now see the Fed waiting until June to start to interest-rate cuts, and to deliver just 75 basis points of reductions over the course of the year. Earlier on Wednesday, as stock-market turmoil and a sharp rise in Treasury yields expressed investors' fear of an economic downturn, traders had placed heavy bets on a May start to Fed rate cuts and four, if not more, quarter-point rate cuts over the course of 2025.

Bond Markets Retreat as US Treasuries Lead Yield Jump Worldwide

(Bloomberg) -- A pullback from US Treasuries sent longer-term yields surging by the most since pandemic struck in 2020, deepening losses in what’s supposed to be a haven from financial turmoil and roiling markets abroad as investors sold government bonds.The yield on 30-year Treasuries briefly pushed over 5% in Asia and the pressure seeped into other markets, with yields rising sharply in Australia, the UK and in the developing world. The selloff eased during the US trading day as stocks rebound

US lawmakers move to block IMF Central Africa support over oil fund dispute

U.S. lawmakers have introduced legislation that could block International Monetary Fund support for some Central African countries, in an effort to guard billions of dollars that oil companies must set aside for environmental restoration. The bill highlights a standoff between foreign investors on one side and Central African monetary authorities trying to enforce tighter capital controls on extractive industries to shore up depleted reserves on the other. Introduced by U.S. Republican Representatives Bill Huizenga and Dan Meuser, the bill targets new regulations imposed by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), the regional central bank, that require international oil companies (IOCs) to deposit the environmental restoration funds into BEAC-controlled accounts.

US corporate bond market dries up on Trump tariff volatility

(Reuters) -U.S. corporate bond market issuances have dried up after opening for just one bond offering on Tuesday, as spreads in the week after President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs widened the most since the 2023 regional banking crisis. Since Trump's tariff announcements exactly one week ago on April 2, corporate bond spreads, or the cost to borrow, have widened to their highest levels in nearly two years. Both investment-grade and junk bond spreads have seen the most one-week widening since the regional banking stress in March 2023 that resulted in the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other banks, according to Dan Krieter, director of fixed income strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

Analysis-US refiners unlikely to spend big to process more domestic oil

U.S. refiners are not planning to make big-ticket investments to process more domestic crude and less oil from top suppliers Canada and Mexico, industry sources and analysts said, an obstacle to President Trump's plan to boost oil output. Trump's pledge to unleash U.S. energy production and lower prices for consumers has focused on increasing domestic oil drilling. At the same time, his tariff threats have cut imports of crude from Canada and Mexico, which account for around a quarter of the oil U.S. refiners process, even though in the end he decided to exempt energy imports.