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Argentina FX futures jittery as traders place bets ahead of IMF deal

Argentine peso futures have weakened sharply in recent days as traders place tentative bets on a faster depreciation of the embattled currency amid uncertainty over the exchange rate regime ahead of a deal with the International Monetary Fund. The April peso future contract has weakened to around 1,180 per dollar from 1,125 on April 9 when the IMF announced that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Argentina over a new $20 billion loan program to help bolster depleted reserves. That's seen traders playing a guessing game on what that might mean for the currency, which is currently held in check by strict capital controls and a so-called crawling peg, which allows it to depreciate at 1% each month currently.

US consumer sentiment, inflation expectations deteriorate sharply in April

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in April and 12-month inflation expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease over escalating trade tensions. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers on Friday said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 this month from a final reading of 57.0 in March. "Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month."

Fed should 'lean against' persistent tariff-driven inflation, Musalem says

Noting high uncertainty over the effects and timing of tariffs and other new policies and the "distinct possibility" that inflation reaccelerates even as the labor market softens, Musalem said Fed policy is well positioned and should remain vigilant. "I would be wary of assuming the impact of high tariffs on inflation would be only brief or limited," Musalem told the Arkansas Bankers Association. "I consider it appropriate to 'lean against' second-round effects with monetary policy, although discerning between underlying inflation and the direct, indirect and second-round effects of tariffs is likely to be challenging in real time."

Exclusive-China has considered opening its $520 billion ETF market to Western market makers, sources say

China has been looking at allowing Western firms such as Citadel Securities and Jane Street to act as market makers in its rapidly growing exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said. Over the last two years, Chinese authorities have issued more licences and encouraged the development of domestic market makers. The sources cautioned, however, that the escalating trade war with U.S. that has seen China saddled with tariffs of 145% this year could delay Beijing's official green light for U.S. firms.