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Economic forecasting has never been easy, and it becomes even more challenging when faced with unprecedented events like COVID-19 lockdowns and extraordinary levels of fiscal and monetary intervention. This was followed by a rapid cycle of interest rate hikes , adding further complexity.
Just look at the past few years, with 2024 being the third year in a row where rates have surpassed most forecasters’ expectations [see last year’s 2024 rate forecasts here ]. The mortgage rate forecasts heading into 2022 , in particular, significantly underestimated the trajectory of rates.
While ResiClub approaches rate forecasts with a healthy dose of skepticism—for example, if the labor market were to unexpectedly weaken, rates could drop more than anticipated—there is still value in understanding where experts predict mortgage rates will head in 2025.
For ResiClub ‘s 2025 mortgage rate roundup, we compiled publicly available forecasts and reached out directly to obtain several private forecasts. This is the most robust rate roundup you’ll find.
Among the 14 mortgage rate forecasts currently tracked byResiClub , the average prediction is 6.34% by late 2025.
Among these rate forecasts for Q4 2025, the highest is 6.8% (Redfin), while the lowest is 5.8% (NAR).
Hunter Housing Economics is a little on the higher end, with the research firm predicting that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.6% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026.
Housing economist Brad Hunter tells ResiClub : “Mortgage rates will not fall the way many analysts are predicting because of the pressure that the federal debt in the U.S. will have on long-term mortgage rates.”
This post originally appeared at
fastcompany.com
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