(Bloomberg) -- Oil prices are set for a new boom period from the middle of the next decade on continued demand growth in China and elsewhere, according to consultants Rapidan Energy Group.
“As expectations of a 2030 peak in global demand recede, the reality of a structurally short supply side will come into view,” the firm founded by former White House official Bob McNally said in a report. “Spare capacity dwindles by 2035 and prices enter a boom cycle.”
World oil consumption will keep growing until 2050 in each of three scenarios based on varying levels of electric vehicle growth, with consuming countries unwilling to accept the downsides of a mass shift to EVs, Rapidan said. Global gasoline demand will keep growing through to 2035, and even in China — the core driver of EV sales — there’s “no end in sight” for consumption of the motor fuel.
Without sufficient investment in new oil supply projects, prices could surge to $150 a barrel, the consultant predicted.
Other forecasters, from Vitol Group and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to the International Energy Agency, predict that demand will stop growing this decade amid a shift away from fossil fuels.
“In the near term, producers will have to sweat a few years of weak prices due to oversupply,” as output will remain “strong” from countries outside the OPEC+ alliance like the US, Brazil and Guyana, Rapidan added. Crude prices are set to decline to $55 a barrel for two or three years, it said.
“This puts OPEC+ in an unenviable position,” potentially forcing the group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia to sacrifice more market share for several years, or let prices drop in order to pressure its rivals, according to the report.