Cathie Wood, the maverick investor and chief of Ark Invest, isn't known for being shy. Her career has been marked by making bold moves and bolder statements.
Perhaps nowhere is that more true than her full-throated backing of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and her predictions for its future. The cryptocurrency that started it all has been on a tear as of late, rocketing up more than 40% in the past month and reaching six figures for the first time . As incredible as that is, Wood believes it has much further to run. In recent years, Wood is on record saying Bitcoin's price could reach a whopping $3.8 million by 2030 -- a 3,890% increase from today's value.
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Institutions are the key
Wood's primary argument revolves around increased buy-in from institutional investors . She believes the recent uptick in professional money managers adding Bitcoin to their holdings will accelerate, and the resultant inflow of capital will have a huge impact on its price.
The fact that a large swath of managers across Wall Street -- not just the most forward-thinking or risk-tolerant -- see Bitcoin as a legitimate investment is undoubtedly one of the most important developments in crypto since its inception.
From the beginning, the industry had an image problem -- it still does, but that's changing. Many people still see it as too risky, but it's a far cry from the early days, when most saw it as a passing fad or an outright scam. The implicit blessing of Wall Street firms helps change that perception.
At present, as much as 60% of professionally managed funds have at least 1% of their portfolios in digital assets, and most intend to increase their positions in the future. It was not long ago -- just a few short years -- that no professional manager would touch Bitcoin with a 10-foot pole.
The rising acceptance of Bitcoin as legitimate among Wall Street, even if it's a cautious one at the moment, is a game changer in the long term.
The approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs was a major catalyst
A major enabler of this shift was the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier this year. After the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave them the green light, issuers like Ark began offering exposure to Bitcoin without the need for investors to hold the asset themselves. The ETFs can be traded like any other security through a traditional brokerage. They also provide increased liquidity to the market, something important to institutional investors.
They took off like wildfire. Blackrock 's offering, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT) , smashed growth records, reaching $40 billion in assets under management (AUM) in just 211 days. The previous record was 1,253 days.
While Bitcoin has a lot of momentum behind it, Wood's target may be overly optimistic
To be fair, Wood's $3.8 million target is her best-case scenario. Her base case is a much more attainable $600,000. She believes that if the average fund had 5% of its portfolio in Bitcoin -- combined with a few other key catalysts like corporations holding it on their balance sheets as cash equivalents -- it would be enough to reach her top target. While the math works out, reaching an average of 5% in just over five years isn't all that realistic, in my view.
While I don't want to diminish the incredible fact that now a majority of institutions have some exposure, most of the major funds -- where the lion's share of all capital is managed -- have less than 1%, and a sizable chunk have none. Things are changing, but maybe not as fast as Wood would like. I think her base case is a much more reasonable target, and one that would still represent an incredible return during the next five years.
Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this: