Michael Saylor's pitch to Microsoft's (MSFT) board on whether the software giant should add bitcoin to its balance sheet is unlikely to get shareholder approval, with Polymarket bettors only giving an 11% chance of it being approved.
Each bet comprises a "Yes" and a "No" side. Each share pays out $1 in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that trades at par with the U.S. dollar, if the prediction comes true, and zero if not.
In October, a proposal from the National Center for Public Policy Research urged Microsoft to add bitcoin to its balance sheet as a diversification investment, but the board recommended shareholders vote against it, arguing that crypto lacked the stability to be part of the treasury of a company the size of MSFT.
Saylor, the executive chairman of Microstrategy (MSTR), which has seen its stock rocket up 455% year-to-date, recently pitched Microsoft's board on this issue, arguing bitcoin could act as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, potentially boosting Microsoft’s $3.2 trillion market cap to over $8 trillion.
Microsoft's current treasury strategy, Saylor says, is weakening the company, as it has "surrendered" $200 billion in capital over five years through dividends and buybacks, which he argued could have been invested in Bitcoin, now up over 1,200% in that period.
One Polymarket bettor argued that there wasn't really a point for institutional investors to want Microsoft to add bitcoin to its balance sheet, because there are already so many options out there to get bitcoin exposure – which wasn't the case when Microstrategy originally bought.
"They're just making their value assessment more difficult by muddying up safe investments (MFST) with volatile ones (BTC)," trader Oxymirin wrote, who holds a position on the 'no' side worth $2000.
Another bettor, who holds the opposite side of the trade, argued that given Microsoft's comfortable cash position, the company might buy a small amount of BTC.
"I think a small amount of funds will be allocated for testing. After all, shareholders' rights must be taken into consideration. Microsoft's cash position is sufficient. Microsoft offers some options for buying Bitcoin," a trader that goes by the handle of titanlin wrote.
Microsoft is scheduled to hold its next shareholder meeting on December 10, where the motion will be voted on.