French Inflation Up Less Than Expected on Weaker Economy

(Bloomberg) -- French inflation quickened less than expected as confidence wanes, remaining well below the European Central Bank’s 2% target and supporting the case for interest rates to be lowered further.

Consumer prices in the euro zone’s second-largest economy rose 1.7% from a year ago in November, statistics agency Insee said Friday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated the pace to quicken for a second month, to 1.8%.

The ECB is widely expected to deliver a fourth cut in borrowing costs when it holds its final monetary-policy meeting of the year next month. While there’s been talk of a half-point move following soft economic data, most officials say they prefer gradual steps.

Inflation numbers this week have revealed an uptick in Spain, as expected, though in Germany price gains held steady — defying estimates for a similar acceleration. The reading for the euro zone as a whole, due later Friday, is seen accelerating to 2.3%.

A monthly survey by the ECB showed euro-zone consumers saw slightly higher inflation in a year’s time.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“Further unfavorable base effects from pump prices are likely to push up France’s reading over the next couple of months, but we expect the gradual easing in underlying cost pressures to help keep a lid on the increase — we see inflation staying below 2%.”

France’s figures showed a slightly faster pace of gains for closely watched services prices, which reached 2.5%. Energy costs continued to fall, though at a slower rate.

The data arrive against a backdrop of political turmoil in France, with a standoff over next year’s budget having triggered a selloff. On Thursday, the rate on benchmark 10-year French notes matched Greece’s for the first time on record.

A separate release from Insee showed consumer spending unexpectedly declined in October for the first time since June as households spent less on manufactured goods and energy. The 0.4% drop compared with economists’ forecast for no change from the previous month.

Consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in November to its lowest level since June, when President Emmanuel Macron triggered prolonged political uncertainty by dissolving parliament. It remains well below the long-term average.

Insee also confirmed Friday that economic output rose 0.4% in the third quarter.