(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin posted its biggest two-day retreat over the weekend since the US election amid a bout of caution in global markets as traders assess the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda.
The digital asset fell almost 3% across Saturday and Sunday before paring some of the drop to change hands at $90,100 as of 9:05 a.m. Monday in Singapore. Among the uncertainties are Trump’s timetable for delivering on his pro-crypto pledges and whether all are feasible, such as setting up a US Bitcoin stockpile.
In the US stock market, euphoria over Trump’s business-friendly stance is being tempered by inflation risks from the prospect of trade tariffs and deficit-spending to fund tax cuts. Investors are scaling back expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in a solid US economy, a possible obstacle for crypto since liquidity conditions can influence speculative demand for digital tokens.
Bitcoin became “overheated” after a record-breaking advance since Election Day on Nov. 5, and “a lot of good news has been built into the price,” IG Australia Pty Market Analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note.
Trump has pledged to create a friendly regulatory framework for crypto, set up a strategic Bitcoin stockpile and make the US the global hub for the industry. A onetime crypto skeptic, the president-elect changed tack after digital-asset firms spent heavily during election campaigning to promote their interests.
Crypto legislation may be approved soon under a Trump administration, spurring a shift away from regulation by enforcement to a more collaborative approach, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note.
Banks could enjoy greater scope to engage with digital assets, the team said, and markets are more hopeful of approval for crypto exchange-traded funds investing in tokens other than just the top two, Bitcoin and Ether.
Regulatory clarity would be a tailwind for venture capital investing, mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings, according to the strategists. But the establishment of a US Bitcoin reserve is a “low-probability event,” they added.
US ETFs investing directly in Bitcoin attracted a net inflow of $4.7 billion from Nov. 6 to Nov. 13, the day the original cryptocurrency set an all-time peak, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. But about $771 million exited the products over Thursday and Friday.