Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, might rise in value to $80,000 to $90,000 if former president Donald Trump is re-elected in November, according to a new research note from market analysts at Bernstein.
“We anticipate that bitcoin could touch $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump secures the presidency,” said Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, the firm's Global Head of Digital Assets. “However, if Harris wins, there’s a risk of bitcoin testing the lower end of the $40,000 range in the near term, reflecting concerns over regulatory tightening.”
Currently, bitcoin is trading at a price of around $63,000 at the time of writing.
Bernstein analysts also pointed out that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, bitcoin markets will face downward pressure, potentially plummeting to a price near $40,000. "Harris has been more conservative in her stance on digital assets, which could result in less regulatory support for the industry in the near term,” the analysts explained.
While Harris has not released an outline of her plans for the digital asset industry, she recently spoke about promoting innovation in the artificial intelligence (AI) and crypto sectors.
As of now, prediction market site Polymarket shows Trump enjoying a 7% lead over Harris, though the vote does not reflect the position of U.S. crypto bettors, who are barred from the site.
Bernstein analysts, however, underlined that the 2024 presidential election would continue to play a significant role in bitcoin prices. "We expect bitcoin to continue reacting to election odds, and turn more positive, if it starts sensing better Trump odds, and become range bound, if the race continues as ‘too close to call,'" they said.
"While not a certainty, the odds have shifted meaningfully in Trump’s favor, which suggests traders are preparing for a Trump win and its impact on markets, especially in the crypto sector,” analysts added.