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Betting odds on Polymarket for Donald Trump launching a cryptocurrency token before the November election surged to over 84% after he announced a launch date for the World Liberty Financial crypto project, but later reversed.
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The market, which has seen over $1.7 million in bets, will only resolve to "Yes" if Trump personally issues a verifiable token on a blockchain by November 4, 2024, despite plans for a governance token named "WLFI" in the project's white paper.
Betting odds on Republican candidate Donald Trump issuing a token before the November presidential elections jumped to over 84% on Polymarket early Friday, before reversing, as he confirmed a launch date for the Trump family-helmed World Liberty Financial crypto project.
The odds of a “yes” in the “Will Trump launch a coin before the election?” market were just 40% on Thursday and 16% a month ago. That seemingly changed in the past 12 hours as Trump said the World Liberty Financial project will released on Monday.
The market has attracted over $1.7 million in bets by Polymarket users as of Friday. It will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive evidence emerges that Trump is involved in “deploying a new token” by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
That means mere plans or confirmation for the token will not resolve the market to “Yes:” it will have to be an actual token issued on a blockchain in a way that can be verified by all.
A copy of the World Liberty white paper seen by CoinDesk states plans for the project to issue a non-transferable governance token called “WLFI.” However, it remains unknown what specific part Trump plays in the project and his role in issuing the proposed token.
Still, some Polymarket users are taking their chances.
“The development team already launched multiple test tokens on Ethereum,” user “Car,” who holds over 4,400 yes shares, wrote. “Funnily enough, that's enough to resolve this market to YES.”
“Non-fungible tokens are indeed Tokens,” another user, “563defi,” who holds 6,600 yes shares, said, referring to Trump’s lineup of NFT projects.
Those on the other side of the bet remain skeptical: “Even if a token launches, it will be his son's,” user “Tenebrus7,” who holds 2,000 “No” shares, wrote. “After the scam - trump will not want to be associated with it anytime soon.”