(Bloomberg) -- US stock futures are pointing to gains at the end of one of the most intensely volatile weeks in decades as investors grapple with the fallout from the global trade war. The euro hit a three-year high.
The dollar extended losses after its biggest plunge in three years, while the 10-year Treasury yield was steady, leaving it almost 50 basis points higher for the week. Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark posted a small advance.
The violent market moves suggest skepticism about the planned talks with US trade partners and fear of escalating tensions with China, even after President Donald Trump’s decision to delay some of his sweeping tariffs. The much-vaunted America-first trade — buying up assets that win when the US outperforms the rest of the world — is reversing on concern that the steepest increase in levies in a century will push the world’s biggest economy into a recession.
“The main player of global trade just just tore down the play-book and we don’t know what his endgame is,” said Olivier Baduel, head of European equities at OFI Invest AM in Paris. “We’re witnessing a loss of visibility and we are still in a phase of uncertainty.”
Investors will look for guidance from executives at some of the biggest US banks which are due to report first-quarter earnings later Friday, including Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley. BlackRock Inc. is also reporting before the US open.
Asian stocks were on track for their third week of declines as market relief turned to angst after the White House clarified US tariffs on China rose to 145%. In a sign investors are seeking havens and non-US alternatives, he Swiss franc touched its highest level in a decade and gold set a fresh record.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was at a six-month low as it extended losses after closing down 1.5% at the end of trading in New York Thursday. The options premium paid to hedge a dollar decline versus a basket of peers over the next week reached the highest since March of 2020, relative to positioning for gains.
Emerging market currencies such as the Korean won and the Thai baht rallied against the dollar. Gains for the yen pushed the Japanese currency to around 143 per dollar on Friday, a level not seen since October.
“So you lose money on bonds, you lose money on the currency and you lose money on the equity market,” said Alain Bokobza, head of global asset allocation at Societe Generale. “That’s a wake up call for all global managers that they need to re-diversify the portfolio in what we call the great rotation.”
Shares in China and Hong Kong rose on Friday on expectations the government will come out with more economic stimulus. The country’s top leaders were due to meet in Beijing Thursday to discuss the measures.
“The Trump administration’s stance has evolved from an all-out trade war against everyone, to a concentrated trade war against China,” said Nicolas Oudin of Gavekal Research. “Most investors believe that China shot itself in the foot by retaliating. The view from Beijing is different. Many in China read the ‘Trump fold’ as a sign of US weakness, and therefore as a validation of China’s decision to escalate.”
The worsening tariffs spat is already affecting corporations. Audi has suspended deliveries to the US and the bigger-than-expected import tax has also prompted Japan’s Nintendo Co. to delay pre-orders for its long-awaited Switch 2 gaming console. From Ray-Bans to wigs, US buyers may see unexpected price rises.
Retailer Five Below Inc. has asked vendors to turn away products waiting for shipment in China before they set off for the US.
In commodities, oil edged higher but remains on track for a second weekly loss.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
Currencies
Cryptocurrencies
Bonds
Commodities
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
--With assistance from Richard Henderson, Matthew Burgess, Toby Alder, Catherine Bosley and Julien Ponthus.