Gold rises to new high on tariff, inflation worries with bullish trend 'firmly intact'

Wall Street's bullishness on gold doesn't appear to be wavering as the precious metal hit yet another all-time high.

On Tuesday, futures ( GC=F ) made their 19th intraday record of the year, surging above $3,170 per ounce before paring gains ahead of President Trump's reciprocal tariff plan announcement expected on April 2.

"Within the commodities complex, long Gold presents the obvious hedge for risky market exposure in our view, especially since the bullish medium-term trend dynamics remain firmly intact," JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Tuesday.

Most notable is the rapid pace at which gold has risen, notching its best quarterly performance in nearly 40 years .

JPMorgan's researchers note gold went from $2,500 to $3,000 per ounce in 210 days, much faster than previous $500 increments, which took an average of 1,700 days.

Year-to-date gold prices are up 19%, while over the past year the commodity is up more than 40%.

"A simple regression analysis shows that over the period since early 2024, gold has turned into a momentum trade, which appears to be backed less by fundamentals and driven more by momentum," wrote Societe Generale researchers and strategists in a note last month.

"Our view is that this momentum dynamic will remain broadly intact," they wrote. The firm expects gold to reach $3,300 by year-end.

Gold rises to new high on tariff, inflation worries with bullish trend 'firmly intact'

Goldman Sachs analysts recently raised their year-end price target to $3,300 "reflecting upside surprises in ETF inflows and in continued strong central bank gold demand." The firm also identified potential events that could spark selling and create better entry points for investors.

"First, a Russia-Ukraine peace deal would likely trigger speculative selling," Goldman commodities strategist Lina Thomas said in a note last Wednesday.

"Second, while not the base case of our portfolio strategists, a potential sharp equity sell-off may trigger margin-driven gold liquidation," she added, noting that a sell-off would be "short-lived."

In the meantime, near-term price action may depend on the exact details of President Trump's highly anticipated announcement at the White House Rose Garden on Wednesday. Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on imports from other countries.

"Tariff-related information has already been partly reflected in gold prices over the past week," said Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com. "If President Trump delays the implementation of these policies, the market may witness a short-term correction in gold as investors take profits after a strong rally."

@ines_ferre .